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导读
巴西总统大选正式拉开大幕，11名候选人展开激烈角逐。巴西数家民调机构进行的多轮民意调查均显示，代表左翼劳工党出战的前总统卢拉领先优势明显。对此，谋取连任的右翼总统博索纳罗并不买账，在8月15日揭幕战演讲时再次抛出那句狠话“我本人就三个结局：赢得大选、死亡、入狱”。外界普遍担心，博索纳罗的支持者是否会效仿特朗普的粉丝上演“国会山骚乱事件”。目前，巴西总统大选呈现如下四大特征。此次巴西大选所展现的政党缠斗、府院之争、左右对决的烈度较为罕见，现任总统的威胁言论和双方支持者的仇恨言行凸显巴西超越经济社会发展阶段的民主政治体制的脆弱性和不确定性。大选带来的社会对抗和社会撕裂，既是巴西政治经济固有结构性矛盾的体现，也是疫情困境和世界动荡变革大背景下“极化政治”在巴西的一个缩影。巴西作为南半球最大的新兴国家，其政治走向具有地区风向标作用。卢拉若顺利当选，将把地区新一轮左翼回归浪潮推向最高点，这对拉美地缘政治和国际秩序重构势必会产生重要影响。
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Win or lose, Jair Bolsonaro poses a threat to Brazilian democracy
(本篇文章节选自2022-09-08期经济学人leader板块,完整版微信群内获取）
Joe biden was talking about the United States when he warned, on September 1st, that “Democracy cannot survive when one side believes there are only two outcomes to an election: either they win or they were cheated.” He might as well have been talking about Brazil.
9月1日，乔·拜登在谈及美国时提醒人们说:“如果候选人有一方认为选举只有两种结果:要么赢，要么是假的，那么民主就无法生存。”现在。巴西政坛可能正在被拜登一语成谶
Next month its president, Jair Bolsonaro, faces an election that every poll says he will probably lose. He says he will accept the result if it is “clean and transparent”, which it will be. Brazil’s electronic voting system is well-run and hard to tamper with. But here’s the catch: Mr Bolsonaro keeps saying the polls are wrong and he is on course to win. He keeps insinuating, too, that the election could somehow be rigged against him. He offers no credible evidence, but many of his supporters believe him. He seems to be laying the rhetorical groundwork to cry ballot fraud and deny the voters’ verdict. Brazilians fear he could then incite an insurrection, perhaps like the one America suffered when a mob of Donald Trump’s supporters invaded the Capitol on January 6th 2021—or perhaps even worse.
下个月，巴西总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)将面临一场选举，所有民调都显示他可能会失败。他却说，如果选举结果是“干净透明的”，他就接受这一结果。巴西的电子投票系统一直运行良好，很难被篡改。但问题在于:博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)一直说民调结果有误，他必将获胜。还不断暗示，此次选举可能会被人操纵，正变得对他不利。他没有提供可信的证据，但他的许多支持者都无脑相信他。他似乎在为大声疾呼选票舞弊和否认选民的裁决做铺垫。巴西人担心他可能会煽动一场起义，就像2021年1月6日唐纳德·特朗普的支持者暴徒入侵国会大厦时美国遭受的那样，或者甚至更糟。
Transparent：透明的；清澈的
Tamper：篡改；干预
Insinuate ：含沙射影；暗示
One reason for worrying that Mr Bolsonaro might borrow a page from Mr Trump’s unprincipled playbook is that he has often done so before. He sows division: the other side are not merely wrong but evil. He dismisses criticism as “fake news”. His instincts are as authoritarian as Mr Trump’s: he waxes nostalgic about the days of military rule in Brazil. One of his sons, who is also one of his closest advisers, openly applauded the Capitol rioters. Mr Bolsonaro was one of the last world leaders to accept that Mr Biden had won.
人们担心博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)可能会借鉴特朗普的无底线做法，因为他以前经常就这个吊样子。他播下分裂的种子:指责对方不仅是错误的，而且是邪恶的。他把对他的批评怒斥为“假新闻”。他的本能和特朗普一样专制:他非常怀念军人统治的日子。他的一个儿子，也是他最亲密的顾问之一，公开为美国国会大厦的暴乱者鼓掌。博尔索纳罗是最后一批承认拜登获胜的世界领导人之一。
Mr Bolsonaro, previously a foul-mouthed congressional gadfly, was elected president in 2018 on a wave of anti-establishment fury. To pull off this unlikely feat, he had learned tricks from another foul-mouthed, widely underestimated outsider. The most important of these was the skilful and mendacious misuse of social media. He remains Brazil’s uncontested master of this, and has thus convinced his supporters of two things. First, that if he loses, it is evidence that the vote was unfair. Second, that a win for his main opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, would hand Brazil to the devil. In the parallel reality that Mr Bolsonaro has constructed, a President Lula would shut down Brazilian churches, turn the country into a narco-state and encourage boys to wear dresses.
博尔索纳罗此前是一名满口脏话的国会流氓，2018年在反建制派的浪潮中当选总统。为了完成这起初不太可能的壮举，他从另一个满嘴脏话、被广泛低估的局外人那里学到了一些技巧。其中最重要的是巧妙而虚假地滥用社交媒体。在这方面，他可以说是巴西无可争议的大师，因此说服了他的支持者两件事。首先，如果他输了，这就是投票不公平的证据。第二，如果他的主要对手路易斯Inácio卢拉·达席尔瓦获胜，巴西将被交到魔鬼手中。在博尔索纳罗构建的平行现实中，卢拉总统将关闭巴西的教堂，把这个国家变成一个毒品国家，并鼓励男孩穿裙子。
congressional gadfly,：过会牛氓（国会流氓；国会无赖）
anti-establishment ：反建制；反主流；反传统
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发表于 2022-9-23 13:31:35
