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文章来源：《经济学人》Jan 4th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目
A realistic path to a better relationship between Britain and the EU
改善英国与欧盟关系的切实可行的途径
The end of magical thinking
魔力信念的终结
The question of Europe has caused a decade of turmoil. Here’s how to use the next ten years better
欧洲问题引发了长达十年的动荡。以下是如何更好地利用接下来的十年
Jan 5th 2023
Ten years ago this month, David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister at the time, gave a speech at the London headquarters of Bloomberg, a news organisation. In it Mr Cameron outlined his cunning plan to cement Britain’s place in the European Union, by triggering a fundamental reform of the bloc and then offering Britons an in-out referendum on membership. That went well. The 2016 vote to leave the bloc has exacerbated Britain’s economic malaise, gumming up trade and muting investment. It has soured Britain’s relationship with many of its natural allies and weakened the bonds of its own union.
十年前的这个月，时任英国首相戴维•卡梅伦在新闻机构彭博社伦敦总部发表了演讲。卡梅伦在演讲中概述了他巩固英国在欧盟地位的狡猾计划，即触发欧盟的根本性改革，然后让英国人就是否留在欧盟举行全民公投。一切都很顺利。2016年脱欧公投加剧了英国的经济困境，阻碍了贸易，抑制了投资。它使英国与许多天然盟友的关系恶化，而且还削弱了其自有联盟的纽带。
Worst of all, it has infected British politics with a destructive strain of magical thinking. Mr Cameron himself was an early victim, badly overestimating the EU’s willingness to change its fundamental principles in order to suit Britain. Brexiteers have been high on their own pixie dust from the start, whether conjuring up the gains to be had from leaving the EU or wishing away the issue of the Irish border. Remainers, too, succumb to hocus-pocus if they think that the split can be simply undone.
【1】magical thinking 魔力信念(认为思考某件事情或希望其发生的信念可以使其发生)
例句：the belief that thinking about something or wanting it to happen can make it happen
【2】pixie 小精灵
【3】political hocus-pocus (activity) 政治花招；(words) 政治鬼话最糟糕的是，一种破坏性的魔力信念影响了英国政治。卡梅伦本人就是早期的受害者，他严重高估了欧盟为迎合英国而改变其基本原则的意愿。脱欧派从一开始就对自己的“仙尘”感到兴奋，无论是幻想着脱离欧盟所能获得的好处，还是希望解决爱尔兰边境问题。如果留欧派认为“分开”可以简单地解开，他们也会屈服于这些“鬼话”。
There is a path to a better relationship with Europe. Growing numbers of Britons regard the decision to leave the bloc as a mistake. The EU would like to be on better terms with its difficult neighbour. But taking that path will require an end to magical thinking. It will be a slow-going and incremental process, not an impulsive and revolutionary one. It will mean nurturing trust and consensus, rather than holding winner-takes-all referendums and presenting ultimatums in Brussels. Anyone can jump off a cliff. Climbing one is far harder.
有一条改善与欧洲关系的“路”。越来越多的英国人认为脱欧是一个错误。欧盟希望与这个难相处的邻国搞好关系。但要走这条路，就需要结束“魔力信念”。这将是一个缓慢和渐进的过程，而不是一个冲动和革命性的过程。这将意味着培养信任和共识，而不是举行赢者通吃的公投，在布鲁塞尔发出最后通牒。从悬崖上跳下去很容易。爬上来就难多了。
For Brexiteers, that means recognising the damage that Brexit has done. The Bank of England has estimated that Brexit depressed investment by almost 25% over the five years to 2021. One think-tank reckons that the economy would be more than 5% bigger now if Britain had stayed in the EU. Yet among the Brexit faithful truth-telling is still heresy. In December the Conservative government trailed modest reforms to the financial-services industry as a Brexit dividend, when many of the changes had nothing to do with the EU. The government is still committed to replacing or repealing all retained EU legislation by the end of 2023, a goal that promises pointless disruption.
对于脱欧派来说，这意味着承认脱欧已经造成的损害。英国央行估计，在截至2021年的五年内，英国脱欧使投资减少近25%。一家智库认为，要是英国留在欧盟，现在的经济将增长5%以上。然而，在英国脱欧的忠实支持者中，说实话仍然是离经叛道。去年12月，作为脱欧红利，保守党政府对金融服务业进行了适度改革，当时许多改革与欧盟无关。政府仍致力于在2023年底之前取代或废除所有保留下来的欧盟立法，这一目标可能会造成毫无意义的破坏。
For Remainers, realism means putting aside ideas of rejoining the bloc. If The Economist had a magic wand, it would gladly turn back the clock to 2016, when Britain enjoyed a privileged status as an influential EU member with a host of opt-outs. But rejoining will be vetoed by EU governments until there is a rock-solid political and social consensus in favour of membership. Polls suggest Britons want a close relationship with the EU. But there is much less enthusiasm for Europe as a project of political integration. Returning to the question of membership now would reanimate the toxic polarisation of the Brexit years.
对于留欧派来说，现实主义意味着搁置重新加入欧盟的想法。如果《经济学人》有一根魔杖，它会很高兴地把时光倒流到2016年，当时英国作为一个有影响力的欧盟成员国，享有特权，拥有许多选择退出的权利。但重新加入欧盟将被欧盟各国政府否决，除非在政治和社会上达成坚定的共识，支持加入欧盟。民意调查显示，英国人希望与欧盟保持密切关系。但人们对欧洲作为一个政治一体化项目的热情要低得多。现在回到成员国身份问题，将重新引发英国脱欧时期有害的两极分化。
The pragmatic path to a better relationship with Europe would instead comprise three stages: normalise, build, reimagine. First, Britain must normalise its ties with Brussels. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, already deserves some credit on this score: quiet co-operation in areas from the North Sea to migration is under way. But that will count for little if he cannot reach a workable deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. Doing so would unlock more goodies, from participation in scientific-research schemes to closer co-operation among regulators.
与欧洲建立更好关系的务实之路应该包括三个阶段:正常化、加强和重新构想。首先，英国必须与布鲁塞尔实现关系正常化。在这一点上，英国首相里希•苏纳克已经值得一些赞扬: 从北海到移民等领域的悄悄合作正在进行中。但如果他不能就北爱尔兰协议达成一项可行的协议，这将毫无意义。达成协议会带来更多好处，从参与科研计划到监管机构之间更紧密的合作。
Next, build. The thin Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) negotiated by Boris Johnson will come up for review in 2026. That is a vital opportunity to fatten the deal. The Labour Party, which may well be in power then, has proposed adding a sensible clutch of bolt-on agreements, principally easing the movement of some people and of food products. Labour must watch its own tendency towards magical thinking, which is to assume that not being Tories will be enough to win the EU over. But with hard diplomatic graft, it is possible to expand the TCA.
【1】 bolt-on （尤指商业领域中）附加的，附带的接下来，加强。由鲍里斯·约翰逊谈判达成的《贸易与合作协定》将于2026年接受审查。这是扩大交易的重要机会。届时很有可能执政的工党提议增加一系列合理的附加协议，主要是放宽一些人员和食品的流动。工党必须注意自己的“魔力信念”倾向，即认为不再是保守党就足以赢得欧盟的支持。但通过艰难的外交工作，《贸易与合作协定》是有可能扩大的。
Even these revisions will only marginally offset the economic harm done by leaving the EU. Towards the second half of this decade, work must start on reimagining the Britain-EU relationship afresh. The “Norway” option—being a non-voting member of the single market—would have been a sensible holding position for Britain on the way out of the bloc. But a deal that suits Norway, a small, stable place whose main exports are oil, gas and fish, is much less suited to a large, truculent services-based economy like Britain. More promising is the terrain sketched out by Theresa May in the aftermath of the Brexit vote: deepening market access in areas such as goods and agriculture in exchange for adopting EU law, while retaining autonomy in services. Rejoining the customs union may eventually be possible.
即便是这些修正，也只能轻微抵消脱欧造成的经济损失。在这个十年的后半段，必须开始重新构想英国与欧盟的关系。“挪威”选项——成为单一市场的无投票权成员——对英国脱欧来说是一个明智的选择。但是，适合挪威这样一个主要出口石油、天然气和鱼类的稳定小国的协议，就不太适合像英国这样一个以服务业为基础的经济大国了。更有希望的是特蕾莎·梅在英国脱欧公投后勾勒出的蓝图: 深化商品和农业等领域的市场准入，以换取欧盟法律的通过，同时保留服务业的自主权。最终，可能会重新加入关税同盟。
This might strike many as yet another form of magical thinking. It would certainly be difficult for both sides. For the British, it would mean abandoning a dogmatic aversion to EU law for a cannier approach rooted in strategic self-interest. For Tory Eurosceptics, this will sound like betrayal. Yet if public support for their project is not to evaporate, the economy needs to grow. That requires deeper access to Britain’s biggest export market.
这可能会让很多人觉得是另一种形式的“魔力信念”。这对双方来说肯定都很困难。对英国来说，这将意味着放弃对欧盟法律的教条主义厌恶，转而采取一种根植于战略自身利益的更精明的做法。对于保守党的欧洲怀疑论者来说，这听起来像是背叛。然而，如果公众对他们项目的支持不消失，经济就需要增长。这需要更深入地进入英国最大的出口市场。
No rabbits, less cake
For the EU, it would mean softening its aversion to the idea of Britain cherry-picking bits of the single market. But the scenario it once feared, of Britain becoming a dynamic Singapore-on-Thames, is remote. Binding Britain back into the EU’s regime for chemicals, agriculture or state aid would be a boon for a bloc that aspires to be a regulatory superpower. And the benefits of a more constructive and respectful relationship with Britain are not just economic, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.
Singapore-on-Thames：指的是英国将在脱欧后转变成低税率、监管放松的经济体，与过度监管、高度僵化的欧元区划清界限。 【1】cherry-pick 精选对欧盟来说，这将意味着缓和其对英国在单一市场中“挑挑拣拣”的反感。但是，英国成为泰晤士河上一个充满活力的新加坡，这一欧盟曾经担心的情景，现在还很遥远。对于一个渴望成为监管超级大国的集团来说，将英国重新纳入欧盟的化学品、农业或国家援助制度将是一件好事。与英国建立更具建设性和相互尊重的关系所带来的好处不仅仅是经济上的，正如乌克兰战争所证明的那样。
A bespoke relationship with Britain would also fit into a wider rethinking of Europe’s architecture. Over the coming decade the EU will need to ponder how to manage the aspirations of Ukraine and the western Balkan states which wish to join. Old debates about variable geometry and a multi-speed Europe will be given fresh impetus. Forging an enduring relationship between Britain and the EU will take time, hard work and realism. But there is still room for imagination. ■
“多速欧洲”在欧盟内争议很大,一些小国如希腊,以及中东欧国家担心,“多速欧洲”将造成大国和“老欧洲”主宰欧盟,而小国和“新欧洲”将被边缘化。
德国前财长朔伊布勒曾提出一种“可变几何”的欧洲：欧盟的核心成员国走向充分联邦化，而地中海国家可选择更具弹性的安排。 与英国的定制关系也符合对欧洲架构的更广泛反思。未来10年，欧盟将需要考虑如何处理乌克兰和西巴尔干国家希望加入欧盟的愿望。关于可变几何和多速欧洲的老争论将被赋予新的动力。在英国和欧盟之间建立持久的关系需要时间、艰苦的工作和现实主义。但仍有想象的空间。■ |
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发表于 2023-3-4 11:58:48
